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Macro Dashboard
FRED · Federal Reserve Economic DataA live, form-aware read on the US economy. Each series is interpreted with the right change measure — YoY for indices, bp/pp moves for rates, percentile for VIX, the Sahm rule for unemployment — then synthesised into four composite gauges.
Macro regimeRisk-on · Supportive
Growth & Recession Gauge:HealthyInflation Regime:ModeratingFinancial Conditions:NeutralPolicy Stance:Near neutral
Risk-on · Supportive — curve normally sloped, moderating inflation, near neutral policy, neutral financial conditions. No recession signals currently active.
Composite gauges
Growth & Recession Gauge
Healthy.
GDP growth
2.10%
10Y-2Y curve
0.35pp
Sahm rule
0.17pp
Payrolls MoM
57
Inflation Regime
Moderating. Headline CPI +4.2% YoY, core +2.8% YoY; 5Y breakeven 2.24%.
Headline CPI YoY
+4.2%
Core CPI YoY
+2.8%
5Y breakeven
2.24%
Fed target
2.0%
Financial Conditions
Neutral. VIX 16.59, BAA-10Y credit spread 1.54pp.
VIX
16.59
Credit spread
1.54pp
10Y yield
4.48%
Unemployment
4.20%
Policy Stance
Near neutral. Fed funds 3.63%, real rate 0.81%.
Fed funds
3.63%
Real rate
0.81%
10Y-2Y
0.35pp
vs neutral
2.5%
Regime screener
How each sector tends to fare under the current Risk-on · Supportive regime — favorable, neutral, or a headwind.
Favorable8
- Technology / GrowthCyclical / growth · High →
- SemiconductorsCyclical / growth · High →
- Consumer DiscretionaryCyclical / growth · High →
- AutomotiveCyclical / growth · High →
- CommunicationCyclical / growth · High →
- EnergyCyclical / growth · High →
- IndustrialsCyclical / growth · High →
- MaterialsCyclical / growth · High →
Neutral5
Unfavorable0
- No sectors in this band.
Regime stock picks
Tracked companies grouped by how the current Risk-on · Supportive regime sits with them — pair macro favorability with each stock and its analytical score.
Macro-favored103
Apple Inc.
AAPL · Technology
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT · Technology
Adobe Inc.
ADBE · Technology
Salesforce Inc.
CRM · Technology
Oracle Corp.
ORCL · Technology
Cisco Systems Inc.
CSCO · Technology
IBM Corp.
IBM · Technology
ServiceNow Inc.
NOW · Technology
Intuit Inc.
INTU · Technology
Palo Alto Networks
PANW · Technology
CrowdStrike Holdings
CRWD · Technology
NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA · Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices
AMD · Semiconductors
Intel Corp.
INTC · Semiconductors
Broadcom Inc.
AVGO · Semiconductors
Texas Instruments
TXN · Semiconductors
Qualcomm Inc.
QCOM · Semiconductors
Micron Technology
MU · Semiconductors
ASML Holding NV
ASML · Semiconductors
Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL · Communication
Meta Platforms Inc.
META · Communication
Netflix Inc.
NFLX · Communication
Walt Disney Co.
DIS · Communication
T-Mobile US Inc.
TMUS · Communication
Verizon Communications
VZ · Communication
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN · Consumer Discretionary
Tesla Inc.
TSLA · Automotive
Nike Inc.
NKE · Consumer Discretionary
Home Depot Inc.
HD · Consumer Discretionary
McDonald's Corp.
MCD · Consumer Discretionary
Starbucks Corp.
SBUX · Consumer Discretionary
Uber Technologies
UBER · Consumer Discretionary
Booking Holdings
BKNG · Consumer Discretionary
Airbnb Inc.
ABNB · Consumer Discretionary
Exxon Mobil Corp.
XOM · Energy
Chevron Corp.
CVX · Energy
ConocoPhillips
COP · Energy
Schlumberger N.V.
SLB · Energy
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT · Industrials
Boeing Co.
BA · Industrials
GE Aerospace
GE · Industrials
United Parcel Service
UPS · Industrials
RTX Corp.
RTX · Industrials
Lockheed Martin
LMT · Industrials
Honeywell International
HON · Industrials
Deere & Co.
DE · Industrials
Linde plc
LIN · Materials
Sherwin-Williams
SHW · Materials
Freeport-McMoRan
FCX · Materials
Occidental Petroleum
OXY · Energy
Phillips 66
PSX · Energy
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · Energy
Valero Energy
VLO · Energy
EOG Resources
EOG · Energy
Air Products & Chemicals
APD · Materials
Newmont Corp.
NEM · Materials
Nucor Corp.
NUE · Materials
3M Co.
MMM · Industrials
Union Pacific Corp.
UNP · Industrials
CSX Corp.
CSX · Industrials
General Motors Co.
GM · Automotive
MercadoLibre Inc.
MELI · Consumer Discretionary
Shopify Inc.
SHOP · Technology
Snowflake Inc.
SNOW · Technology
Cloudflare Inc.
NET · Technology
Datadog Inc.
DDOG · Technology
Zscaler Inc.
ZS · Technology
Okta Inc.
OKTA · Technology
Workday Inc.
WDAY · Technology
Autodesk Inc.
ADSK · Technology
Marvell Technology
MRVL · Semiconductors
ON Semiconductor Corp.
ON · Semiconductors
Microchip Technology
MCHP · Semiconductors
Lam Research Corp.
LRCX · Semiconductors
Applied Materials Inc.
AMAT · Semiconductors
Comcast Corp.
CMCSA · Communication
Warner Bros Discovery
WBD · Communication
Spotify Technology
SPOT · Communication
Roku Inc.
ROKU · Communication
Pinterest Inc.
PINS · Communication
Alibaba Group
BABA · Consumer Discretionary
Lowe's Cos.
LOW · Consumer Discretionary
TJX Cos.
TJX · Consumer Discretionary
Dollar General Corp.
DG · Consumer Discretionary
Ulta Beauty Inc.
ULTA · Consumer Discretionary
Yum Brands Inc.
YUM · Consumer Discretionary
Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMG · Consumer Discretionary
Marriott International
MAR · Consumer Discretionary
Royal Caribbean Group
RCL · Consumer Discretionary
Hess Corp.
HES · Energy
Kinder Morgan
KMI · Energy
Energy Transfer
ET · Energy
Devon Energy
DVN · Energy
Albemarle Corp.
ALB · Materials
CF Industries
CF · Materials
Mosaic Co.
MOS · Materials
Dow Inc.
DOW · Materials
Norfolk Southern
NSC · Industrials
Old Dominion Freight
ODFL · Industrials
Delta Air Lines
DAL · Industrials
United Airlines Holdings
UAL · Industrials
Eaton Corp.
ETN · Industrials
General Dynamics
GD · Industrials
Macro-neutral77
Walmart Inc.
WMT · Consumer Staples
Coca-Cola Co.
KO · Consumer Staples
Procter & Gamble
PG · Consumer Staples
Costco Wholesale
COST · Consumer Staples
PepsiCo Inc.
PEP · Consumer Staples
Mondelez International
MDLZ · Consumer Staples
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · Financials
Visa Inc.
V · Financials
Mastercard Inc.
MA · Financials
Bank of America Corp.
BAC · Financials
Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC · Financials
Goldman Sachs Group
GS · Financials
Morgan Stanley
MS · Financials
BlackRock Inc.
BLK · Financials
Citigroup Inc.
C · Financials
Charles Schwab Corp.
SCHW · Financials
American Express Co.
AXP · Financials
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · Healthcare
UnitedHealth Group
UNH · Healthcare
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · Healthcare
AbbVie Inc.
ABBV · Healthcare
Pfizer Inc.
PFE · Healthcare
Merck & Co.
MRK · Healthcare
Abbott Laboratories
ABT · Healthcare
Amgen Inc.
AMGN · Healthcare
Bristol-Myers Squibb
BMY · Healthcare
CVS Health Corp.
CVS · Healthcare
Prologis Inc.
PLD · Real Estate
American Tower Corp.
AMT · Real Estate
NextEra Energy
NEE · Utilities
Duke Energy Corp.
DUK · Utilities
Thermo Fisher Scientific
TMO · Healthcare
Danaher Corp.
DHR · Healthcare
Intuitive Surgical Inc.
ISRG · Healthcare
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
VRTX · Healthcare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
REGN · Healthcare
Gilead Sciences
GILD · Healthcare
Zoetis Inc.
ZTS · Healthcare
S&P Global
SPGI · Financials
Moody's Corp.
MCO · Financials
Chubb Ltd.
CB · Financials
U.S. Bancorp
USB · Financials
PNC Financial Services
PNC · Financials
MetLife Inc.
MET · Financials
American International Group
AIG · Financials
Southern Company
SO · Utilities
American Electric Power
AEP · Utilities
Crown Castle Inc.
CCI · Real Estate
Equinix Inc.
EQIX · Real Estate
Public Storage
PSA · Real Estate
Simon Property Group
SPG · Real Estate
Colgate-Palmolive
CL · Consumer Staples
Kimberly-Clark Corp.
KMB · Consumer Staples
Hershey Co.
HSY · Consumer Staples
Sysco Corp.
SYY · Consumer Staples
Kroger Co.
KR · Consumer Staples
Truist Financial
TFC · Financials
Bank of New York Mellon
BK · Financials
Capital One Financial
COF · Financials
Travelers Cos.
TRV · Financials
Allstate Corp.
ALL · Financials
Marsh & McLennan
MMC · Financials
CME Group Inc.
CME · Financials
Moderna Inc.
MRNA · Healthcare
Biogen Inc.
BIIB · Healthcare
DexCom Inc.
DXCM · Healthcare
Illumina Inc.
ILMN · Healthcare
HCA Healthcare
HCA · Healthcare
Cigna Group
CI · Healthcare
Dominion Energy
D · Utilities
Exelon Corp.
EXC · Utilities
Xcel Energy
XEL · Utilities
American Water Works
AWK · Utilities
Realty Income Corp.
O · Real Estate
Digital Realty Trust
DLR · Real Estate
Welltower Inc.
WELL · Real Estate
Equity Residential
EQR · Real Estate
Macro headwind0
No tracked names in this band.
Growth & Activity
· GDP, payrolls, housing, sentimentReal GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized)
Quarterly · % · Jan 1, 2026
2.1%
QoQ +1.60ppMoM +1.60ppQoQ +1.60ppYoY +2.70pp
Above-trend growth, accelerating.
Real GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized)
A191RL1Q225SBEA
Real GDP (level)
Quarterly · $ Bil · Jan 1, 2026
24180.4
YoY +2.7%MoM +0.5%QoQ +0.5%YoY +2.7%
Real output expanding briskly YoY.
Real GDP (level)
GDPC1
Housing Starts
Monthly · Thous. · May 1, 2026
1177.0
MoM -15.4% · YoY -8.7%MoM -15.4%QoQ -12.6%YoY -8.7%
Housing starts softening MoM.
Housing Starts
HOUST
Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)
Monthly · Index · May 1, 2026
44.8
YoY -14.2%MoM -10.0%QoQ -20.8%YoY -14.2%
Consumer sentiment deteriorating YoY.
Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)
UMCSENT
Inflation
· CPI, PCE, breakevensConsumer Price Index (CPI, Urban)
Monthly · Index 1982-84=100 · May 1, 2026
334.0
YoY +4.2%MoM +0.5%QoQ +2.0%YoY +4.2%
Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising.
Consumer Price Index (CPI, Urban)
CPIAUCSL
Core CPI (less food & energy)
Monthly · Index 1982-84=100 · May 1, 2026
336.1
YoY +2.8%MoM +0.2%QoQ +0.8%YoY +2.8%
Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising.
Core CPI (less food & energy)
CPILFESL
PCE Price Index
Monthly · Index 2017=100 · May 1, 2026
131.5
YoY +4.1%MoM +0.4%QoQ +1.5%YoY +4.1%
Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising.
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
Core PCE Price Index
Monthly · Index 2017=100 · May 1, 2026
130.1
YoY +3.4%MoM +0.3%QoQ +0.9%YoY +3.4%
Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising.
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
5Y Breakeven Inflation
Daily · % · Jul 2, 2026
2.2%
1M -0.28ppMoM -0.28ppQoQ -0.33ppYoY —
Markets price ~2.2% inflation over 5Y.
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
Rates & Curve
· Fed funds, Treasuries, spreadsFederal Funds Effective Rate
Monthly · % · Jun 1, 2026
3.6%
1M +0.00ppMoM +0.00ppQoQ -0.01ppYoY -0.70pp
Policy near neutral at 3.6%.
Federal Funds Effective Rate
FEDFUNDS
10-Year Treasury Yield
Daily · % · Jul 1, 2026
4.5%
1M +1bpMoM +0.01ppQoQ +0.15ppYoY —
10Y Treasury yield at 4.48%.
10-Year Treasury Yield
DGS10
2-Year Treasury Yield
Daily · % · Jul 1, 2026
4.2%
1M +12bpMoM +0.12ppQoQ +0.36ppYoY —
2Y Treasury yield at 4.17%.
2-Year Treasury Yield
DGS2
30-Year Treasury Yield
Daily · % · Jul 1, 2026
5.0%
1M -2bpMoM -0.02ppQoQ +0.06ppYoY —
30Y Treasury yield at 4.97%.
30-Year Treasury Yield
DGS30
10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread
Daily · % · Jul 2, 2026
0.3%
1M -0.06ppMoM -0.06ppQoQ -0.17ppYoY —
Curve positively sloped — normal term structure.
10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread
T10Y2Y
BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread
Daily · % · Jul 1, 2026
1.5%
1M +0.00ppMoM +0.00ppQoQ -0.21ppYoY —
BAA-10Y credit spread at 1.54pp — credit conditions benign.
BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread
BAA10Y
Moody's AAA Corporate Yield
Daily · % · Jul 1, 2026
5.6%
1M +11bpMoM +0.11ppQoQ +0.12ppYoY —
AAA corporate yield at 5.60%.
Moody's AAA Corporate Yield
DAAA
Labor Market
· Unemployment, claims, payrollsNonfarm Payrolls
Monthly · Thous. · Jun 1, 2026
158984.0
MoM +57 · YoY +0.3%MoM +0.0%QoQ +0.2%YoY +0.3%
Payrolls rising modestly month-over-month.
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly · Thous. · Jun 27, 2026
215000.0
1M +3,000MoM +1.4%QoQ +1.9%YoY -8.9%
Claims at 215,000 (very tight labor).
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
Unemployment Rate
Monthly · % · Jun 1, 2026
4.2%
YoY +0.10ppMoM -0.10ppQoQ -0.10ppYoY +0.10pp
Unemployment 4.2%.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Markets & Liquidity
· VIX, M2, Fed balance sheetM2 Money Supply
Monthly · $ Bil · May 1, 2026
23052.3
YoY +5.6%MoM +1.1%QoQ +1.9%YoY +5.6%
M2 growing modestly.
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Daily · Index · Jul 1, 2026
16.6
26th pct (recent)MoM +3.4%QoQ -32.4%YoY —
Volatility subdued — complacency. 26th percentile of recent history..
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
VIXCLS
Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet)
Weekly · $ Bil · Jul 1, 2026
6724564.0
YoY +0.9%MoM +0.3%QoQ +0.7%YoY +0.9%
Fed balance sheet roughly flat.
Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet)
WALCL
All series — readings
| Series | Latest | Change | Read | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized) | 2.1% | QoQ +1.60pp | Above-trend growth, accelerating. | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Real GDP (level) | 24180.4 | YoY +2.7% | Real output expanding briskly YoY. | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 158984.0 | MoM +57 · YoY +0.3% | Payrolls rising modestly month-over-month. | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 215000.0 | 1M +3,000 | Claims at 215,000 (very tight labor). | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | YoY +0.10pp | Unemployment 4.2%. | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI, Urban) | 334.0 | YoY +4.2% | Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| Core CPI (less food & energy) | 336.1 | YoY +2.8% | Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| PCE Price Index | 131.5 | YoY +4.1% | Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| Core PCE Price Index | 130.1 | YoY +3.4% | Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| 5Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.2% | 1M -0.28pp | Markets price ~2.2% inflation over 5Y. | Jul 2, 2026 |
| M2 Money Supply | 23052.3 | YoY +5.6% | M2 growing modestly. | May 1, 2026 |
| Federal Funds Effective Rate | 3.6% | 1M +0.00pp | Policy near neutral at 3.6%. | Jun 1, 2026 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.5% | 1M +1bp | 10Y Treasury yield at 4.48%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.2% | 1M +12bp | 2Y Treasury yield at 4.17%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.0% | 1M -2bp | 30Y Treasury yield at 4.97%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread | 0.3% | 1M -0.06pp | Curve positively sloped — normal term structure. | Jul 2, 2026 |
| BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread | 1.5% | 1M +0.00pp | BAA-10Y credit spread at 1.54pp — credit conditions benign. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Moody's AAA Corporate Yield | 5.6% | 1M +11bp | AAA corporate yield at 5.60%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 16.6 | 26th pct (recent) | Volatility subdued — complacency. 26th percentile of recent history.. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) | 6724564.0 | YoY +0.9% | Fed balance sheet roughly flat. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Housing Starts | 1177.0 | MoM -15.4% · YoY -8.7% | Housing starts softening MoM. | May 1, 2026 |
| Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan) | 44.8 | YoY -14.2% | Consumer sentiment deteriorating YoY. | May 1, 2026 |