Mosaic Co.

Revenue declined +28.4% YoY to $13.70B. Net margin at 8.51% (expanding ▲). Return on equity 10.15%, ROA 5.06%, ROIC 11.65%.

• Revenue declined +28.4% YoY to $13.70B.
• Net margin at 8.51% (expanding ▲).
• Return on equity 10.15%, ROA 5.06%, ROIC 11.65%.
• Gross margin 16.14%, operating margin 9.77%.
• Free cash flow margin 7.34% ($1.00B).
• Net income down ▼ +67.5% YoY.
• Debt/equity 0.32, current ratio 1.25, net debt $3.55B.
• Asset turnover 0.56 — capital efficiency.

Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 27, 2026. Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 11, 2026. 19 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.

• Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 27, 2026.
• Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 11, 2026.
• 19 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
• Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
• ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Mosaic Co.; broad institutional reporting.
• Recent filers include TIDE POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP, SOUND ENERGY PARTNERS, INC., CRITERIA CAIXA, S.A.U..
• 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.

7 risk signal(s), 1 positive signal(s) detected from XBRL filing diff analysis. Gross margin compression combined with rising leverage creates a compounding effect: lower margins reduce operating cash flow exactly when higher debt demands more interest coverage. This dual pressure can trigger a negative feedback loop if not addressed.

• Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +1.0% vs revenue -28.4%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
• Leverage is building — debt rising while equity contracts: Long-term debt grew +26.9% while stockholders equity declined -6.6%. The debt-to-equity ratio is deteriorating, increasing financial risk and interest burden. This may constrain future borrowing capacity.
• Gross margin compression: Gross margin contracted +14.0%pp (from 30.1% to 16.1%). This may reflect input cost inflation, pricing pressure, or product mix shift toward lower-margin segments.
• Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +62.6% YoY (from $2.69B to $1.00B). With OCF at $2.41B and capex at $1.40B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
• NEW: Going concern doubt in latest filing: The term "going concern" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 13 filing(s).
• Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 31 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
• Endogenous analysis: Gross margin compression combined with rising leverage creates a compounding effect: lower margins reduce operating cash flow exactly when higher debt demands more interest coverage. This dual pressure can trigger a negative feedback loop if not addressed.
• Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
• Endogenous analysis: Inventory accumulation alongside margin compression is a classic demand-softening signal: excess inventory typically leads to discounting, which compresses margins further. Monitor for clearance events, write-downs, or guidance revisions.
• 11 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
• 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
• 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Going concern doubt, Restatement of financial statements.
• Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.