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Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMGConsumer DiscretionaryGenerated Jul 5, 2026, 08:13 PM UTC
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill) analytical snapshot. Revenue grew +14.3% YoY to $9.87B. Net margin at 12.45% (expanding ▲). Return on equity 51.89%, ROA 13.35%, ROIC 65.79%. Market cap $45.40B at $35.39 per share. Trailing P/E 39.76, P/S 4.60, P/B 18.85. EV/Operating income ≈ 28.98 (EV $45.15B). Risk: Elevated. Macro: Risk-on · Supportive. Composite analytical score -10 (data confidence 82%). Descriptive analytics from public filings — not investment advice.
Market cap
$45.40B
1.28B shares
Price
$35.39
NYQ
P/E (ttm)
39.76
Revenue (FY)
$9.87B
YoY +14.3%
Net margin
12.45%
▲ 6.50pp
Free cash flow
$1.22B
12.39% margin
Risk level
Elevated
Free SEC analysis
— computed from SEC filings, free to readFree previewFundamentals Analyst
Fundamentals
Fundamentals Analyst
score 45Improving
80% conf
Revenue grew +14.3% YoY to $9.87B. Net margin at 12.45% (expanding ▲). Return on equity 51.89%, ROA 13.35%, ROIC 65.79%.
- Revenue grew +14.3% YoY to $9.87B.
- Net margin at 12.45% (expanding ▲).
- Return on equity 51.89%, ROA 13.35%, ROIC 65.79%.
- Gross margin 0.00%, operating margin 15.78%.
- Free cash flow margin 12.39% ($1.22B).
- Net income up ▲ +36.7% YoY.
- Debt/equity 0.00, current ratio 0.92, net debt -$246.6M.
- Asset turnover 1.12 — capital efficiency.
Revenue (FY)
$9.87B
YoY +14.3%
Net margin
12.45%
▲ 6.50pp
ROE
51.89%
ROA 13.35%
ROIC
65.79%
EPS (diluted)
$0.89
FY2025
Free cash flow
$1.22B
12.39% margin
Debt / equity
0.00
Cash $246.6M
Current ratio
0.92
Equity $2.41B
Annual fundamentals — up to 10 years (SEC 10-K, US-GAAP)
| FY | Revenue | Rev YoY | Gross% | Op% | Net% | FCF | ROE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.95 |
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.63 |
| 2018 | $3.90B | — | 0.00 | 0.89 | 0.59 | $96.3M | 1.08 |
| 2019 | $4.48B | +14.7% | 0.00 | 6.05 | 3.94 | $251.4M | 12.57 |
| 2020 | $4.86B | +8.7% | 0.00 | 5.31 | 3.63 | $334.2M | 12.94 |
| 2021 | $5.59B | +14.8% | 0.00 | 7.95 | 6.27 | $387.7M | 24.29 |
| 2022 | $5.98B | +7.1% | 0.00 | 4.85 | 5.94 | $290.5M | 21.14 |
| 2023 | $7.55B | +26.1% | 0.00 | 10.67 | 8.65 | $839.6M | 32.32 |
| 2024 | $8.63B | +14.4% | 0.00 | 13.44 | 10.41 | $844.0M | 39.14 |
| 2025 | $9.87B | +14.3% | 0.00 | 15.78 | 12.45 | $1.22B | 51.89 |
Quarterly revenue trend (last 6 quarters, SEC 10-Q)
| Quarter end | Revenue | YoY | QoQ | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | $2.88B | +6.4% | — | 13.45% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $5.94B | +4.6% | +106.5% | 13.85% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $3.06B | -46.0% | -48.4% | 26.86% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $8.94B | +5.6% | +191.9% | 13.47% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | $3.00B | -64.5% | -66.4% | 40.11% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $3.09B | +7.4% | +2.8% | 9.81% |
Revenue (annual, SEC 10-K)
2016: 0
2017: 0
2018: 3,904
2019: 4,476
2020: 4,865
2021: 5,586
2022: 5,985
2023: 7,547
2024: 8,635
2025: 9,872
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Profitability trends (%)
GrossOperatingNet
Free cash flow (annual)
2016: 0
2017: 0
2018: 96
2019: 251
2020: 334
2021: 388
2022: 290
2023: 840
2024: 844
2025: 1,223
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Sources:SEC EDGAR — Company Facts (XBRL)
Free previewRegulatory Analyst
Filings & Ownership
Regulatory Analyst
score 5Stable
80% conf
Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 4, 2026. Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 30, 2026. 16 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 4, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 30, 2026.
- 16 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Latest 10-K
Feb 4, 2026
Annual report
Latest 10-Q
Apr 30, 2026
8-K (recent)
16
Insider net
—
0B/0S
13F filers
—
Activist 13D
0
Recent 8-K material events
| Date | Form | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 8-K | 8-K |
Free previewSEC Filing Analyst
SEC Filing Deep-Analysis
SEC Filing Analyst
score -51Deteriorating
64% conf
4 risk signal(s), 2 positive signal(s), 1 watch item(s) detected from XBRL filing diff analysis. Revenue grew +14.3% but receivables grew +24.6% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +24.6% YoY vs revenue growth of +14.3%. The +10.3% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Going concern doubt: The term "going concern" appears in 2 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 20 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- NEW: Restatement of financial statements in latest filing: The term "restate" "financial statements" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 1 filing(s).
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.45x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Deferred revenue growing — future revenue visibility: Deferred revenue grew +17.1% to $183.1M, providing forward revenue visibility. This is a positive leading indicator for subscription or contract-based businesses.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew +14.3% but receivables grew +24.6% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- Endogenous analysis: Strong cash conversion (OCF > NI) combined with growing deferred revenue provides high forward visibility. The business model appears to generate sustainable, recurring cash flows — a positive structural indicator.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Restatement of financial statements, Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Going concern doubt, Material weakness in internal controls.
Revenue
$9.87B
+14.3% YoY
Operating income
$1.56B
+34.2% YoY
Net income
$1.23B
+36.7% YoY
Operating cash flow
$1.78B
+34.8% YoY
Capex
$560.7M
+17.0% YoY
Total assets
$9.20B
+14.4% YoY
Total liabilities
$5.55B
+11.4% YoY
Long-term debt
$0
— YoY
Filing quality score
65/100
stable
SEC XBRL metric changes (latest annual vs prior)
| Metric | Prior year | Latest year | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.63B | $9.87B | $1.24B | +14.3% |
| Operating income | $1.16B | $1.56B | $397.4M | +34.2% |
| Net income | $899.1M | $1.23B | $329.6M | +36.7% |
| Operating cash flow | $1.32B | $1.78B | $460.3M | +34.8% |
| Capex | $479.2M | $560.7M | $81.6M | +17.0% |
| Total assets | $8.04B | $9.20B | $1.16B | +14.4% |
| Total liabilities | $4.98B | $5.55B | $566.7M | +11.4% |
| Long-term debt | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $560.6M | $748.5M | $187.9M | +33.5% |
| Stockholders equity | $2.30B | $2.37B | $70.6M | +3.1% |
| Inventory | $39.3M | $48.9M | $9.6M | +24.5% |
| Accounts receivable | $115.5M | $144.0M | $28.4M | +24.6% |
XBRL disclosure changes (new vs dropped concepts)
| Type | Concepts |
|---|---|
| Removed | AccountsAndFinancingReceivableAllowanceForCreditLoss, AccruedSalariesCurrent, AccumulatedDepreciationDepletionAndAmortizationPropertyPlantAndEquipment, CurrentFederalTaxExpenseBenefit, CurrentForeignTaxExpenseBenefit, CurrentIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, CurrentStateAndLocalTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredCompensationLiabilityCurrentAndNoncurrent, DeferredFederalIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredForeignIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit |
Risk language in filing text (EDGAR full-text search)
| Term | Severity | Recent | Prior | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Going concern doubt | high | 2 | 1 | Ongoing |
| Material weakness in internal controls | high | 20 | 2 | Ongoing |
| Restatement of financial statements | high | 1 | 0 | NEW |
| Impairment charge | medium | 23 | 2 | Ongoing |
| Restructuring | medium | 33 | 8 | Ongoing |
| Off-balance sheet arrangements | medium | 62 | 0 | NEW |
| Related party transactions | low | 40 | 9 | Ongoing |
Filing signal breakdown
Red flags: 4
Positive: 2
Watch: 1
Red flags
Positive
Watch
Unlock the rest
- ProValuationMarket cap $45.40B at $35.39 per share.
- ProPrice & TechnicalsPrice $35.39 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive.
- ProMacro & RatesMarket regime: Risk-on · Supportive.
- ProRisk ScorecardComposite risk: Elevated.
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Macro exposure
Cyclical / growth · High sensitivityMacro regime: Risk-on · Supportive. Chipotle Mexican Grill is a cyclical / growth name (high macro sensitivity) — risk appetite favors cyclical/growth names.
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Yield curve
Normal
VIX
16.59
Fed funds
3.63%
CPI YoY
+4.2%
Analytical read
deterministic previewRevenue grew **+14.3%** YoY to $9.87B..
Risk
Elevated
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Macro exposure
Supportive
Descriptive analytics from public filings and macro data — not investment advice.
Peer comparison
Cyclical / growth groupHow CMG stacks up against tracked peers with similar macro sensitivity — by analytical score and macro exposure.
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|---|---|---|
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