Valero Energy (VLO) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Valero Energy’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (13)
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +20.9% YoY (from $4.77B to $3.77B). With OCF at $5.83B and capex at $2.06B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 1 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 2.48x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- NEW: Impairment charge: Impairment charge appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 2 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Impairment charge.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Restatement of financial statements.
- Market cap $99.70B at $346.26 per share.
- Trailing P/E 45.74, P/B 3.99.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +20.9% YoY (from $4.77B to $3.77B). With OCF at $5.83B and capex at $2.06B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 1 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 25, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 30, 2026.
- 16 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Valero Energy; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include SAGAMORE HILL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, Westchester Capital Management, LLC.
- 7 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 13 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full VLO analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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