Valero Energy (VLO) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Valero Energy’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (11)
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +27.0% YoY (from $10.42B to $7.61B). With OCF at $9.23B and capex at $1.62B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 19 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- NEW: Restatement of financial statements in latest filing: The term "restate" "financial statements" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 2 filing(s).
- Deferred revenue growing — future revenue visibility: Deferred revenue grew +105.0% to $82.0M, providing forward revenue visibility. This is a positive leading indicator for subscription or contract-based businesses.
- NEW: Impairment charge: Impairment charge appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow deterioration coincides with a -24.8% capex reduction. While lower capex temporarily preserves cash, it may signal underinvestment in growth assets — future revenue capacity could be constrained.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Restatement of financial statements, Impairment charge.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +27.0% YoY (from $10.42B to $7.61B). With OCF at $9.23B and capex at $1.62B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 19 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 25, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 30, 2026.
- 16 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Valero Energy; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include SAGAMORE HILL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, Westchester Capital Management, LLC.
Full VLO analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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