United Parcel Service (UPS) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from United Parcel Service’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (13)
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +23.3% YoY (from $6.21B to $4.76B). With OCF at $8.45B and capex at $3.69B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.52x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- NEW: Restructuring: Restructuring appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 4 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Restructuring.
- Revenue declined **+2.6%** YoY to $88.66B.
- 5-year revenue CAGR **-1.8%**; 10y CAGR +4.3%.
- Price $101.93 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum negative.
- RSI(14) 43.47.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +23.3% YoY (from $6.21B to $4.76B). With OCF at $8.45B and capex at $3.69B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.52x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 17, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 5, 2026.
- 17 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference United Parcel Service; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Merit Financial Group, LLC, United Advisor Group, LLC, Capital Wealth Planning, LLC.
- 2 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 18 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full UPS analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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