United Parcel Service (UPS) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from United Parcel Service’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (11)
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +45.6% YoY (from $9.34B to $5.08B). With OCF at $10.24B and capex at $5.16B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 19 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- NEW: Restatement of financial statements in latest filing: The term "restate" "financial statements" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 6 filing(s).
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.53x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 1 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Restatement of financial statements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +45.6% YoY (from $9.34B to $5.08B). With OCF at $10.24B and capex at $5.16B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 19 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 17, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 6, 2026.
- 15 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference United Parcel Service; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Merit Financial Group, LLC, United Advisor Group, LLC, Capital Wealth Planning, LLC.
- 2 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 18 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full UPS analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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