Mosaic Co. (MOS) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Mosaic Co.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (19)
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +32.0% vs revenue +8.4%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +209.1% while operating cash flow declined -36.5%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +1227.8% YoY (from $47.4M to $-534.6M). With OCF at $824.8M and capex at $1.36B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" "internal control" appears in 5 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 2 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.53x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- Endogenous analysis: "Material weakness in internal controls" combined with earnings-cash flow divergence is especially concerning — it suggests the reported earnings may not be reliable due to control deficiencies, and the cash flow shortfall may be masking underlying issues.
- 12 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls, Restatement of financial statements.
- Revenue grew **+8.4%** YoY to $12.05B.
- Net margin at **4.49%** (contracting ▼).
- Price $22.23 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive.
- RSI(14) 46.05.
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity 0.33 (low).
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +32.0% vs revenue +8.4%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +209.1% while operating cash flow declined -36.5%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 27, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 5, 2026.
- 21 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Mosaic Co.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include TIDE POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP, SOUND ENERGY PARTNERS, INC., CRITERIA CAIXA, S.A.U..
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full MOS analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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