Mosaic Co. (MOS) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Mosaic Co.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (21)
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +1.0% vs revenue -28.4%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Leverage is building — debt rising while equity contracts: Long-term debt grew +26.9% while stockholders equity declined -6.6%. The debt-to-equity ratio is deteriorating, increasing financial risk and interest burden. This may constrain future borrowing capacity.
- Gross margin compression: Gross margin contracted +14.0%pp (from 30.1% to 16.1%). This may reflect input cost inflation, pricing pressure, or product mix shift toward lower-margin segments.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +62.6% YoY (from $2.69B to $1.00B). With OCF at $2.41B and capex at $1.40B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- NEW: Going concern doubt in latest filing: The term "going concern" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 13 filing(s).
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 31 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Endogenous analysis: Gross margin compression combined with rising leverage creates a compounding effect: lower margins reduce operating cash flow exactly when higher debt demands more interest coverage. This dual pressure can trigger a negative feedback loop if not addressed.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- Endogenous analysis: Inventory accumulation alongside margin compression is a classic demand-softening signal: excess inventory typically leads to discounting, which compresses margins further. Monitor for clearance events, write-downs, or guidance revisions.
- 11 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Going concern doubt, Restatement of financial statements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.
- Revenue declined **+28.4%** YoY to $13.70B.
- Net margin at **8.51%** (expanding ▲).
- Price $21.13 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum negative.
- RSI(14) 50.22.
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity 0.32 (low).
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +1.0% vs revenue -28.4%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Leverage is building — debt rising while equity contracts: Long-term debt grew +26.9% while stockholders equity declined -6.6%. The debt-to-equity ratio is deteriorating, increasing financial risk and interest burden. This may constrain future borrowing capacity.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 27, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 11, 2026.
- 19 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Mosaic Co.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include TIDE POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP, SOUND ENERGY PARTNERS, INC., CRITERIA CAIXA, S.A.U..
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full MOS analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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