ConocoPhillips (COP) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from ConocoPhillips’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (11)
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +34.9% YoY (from $14.80B to $9.64B). With OCF at $19.80B and capex at $10.16B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 5 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 2.48x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- NEW: Off-balance sheet arrangements: Off-balance sheet arrangements appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 1 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Restatement of financial statements.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +34.9% YoY (from $14.80B to $9.64B). With OCF at $19.80B and capex at $10.16B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 5 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 17, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 6, 2026.
- 10 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference ConocoPhillips; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Vermillion Asset Management LLC, Allen Investment Management LLC, INVESTORS TRUST CO /PA.
- 17 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 3 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full COP analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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