Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Chipotle Mexican Grill’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (17)
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +24.6% YoY vs revenue growth of +14.3%. The +10.3% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Going concern doubt: The term "going concern" appears in 2 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 20 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- NEW: Restatement of financial statements in latest filing: The term "restate" "financial statements" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 1 filing(s).
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.45x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Deferred revenue growing — future revenue visibility: Deferred revenue grew +17.1% to $183.1M, providing forward revenue visibility. This is a positive leading indicator for subscription or contract-based businesses.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew +14.3% but receivables grew +24.6% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- Endogenous analysis: Strong cash conversion (OCF > NI) combined with growing deferred revenue provides high forward visibility. The business model appears to generate sustainable, recurring cash flows — a positive structural indicator.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Restatement of financial statements, Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Going concern doubt, Material weakness in internal controls.
- Market cap $45.40B at $35.39 per share.
- Trailing P/E 39.76, P/S 4.60, P/B 18.85.
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity 0.00 (low).
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +24.6% YoY vs revenue growth of +14.3%. The +10.3% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Going concern doubt: The term "going concern" appears in 2 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 4, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 30, 2026.
- 16 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full CMG analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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