Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Exxon Mobil Corp.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (15)
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +16.5% YoY vs revenue growth of -16.7%. The +33.2% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +42.7% YoY (from $58.39B to $33.45B). With OCF at $55.37B and capex at $21.92B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 20 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.54x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- NEW: Impairment charge: Impairment charge appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- NEW: Off-balance sheet arrangements: Off-balance sheet arrangements appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew -16.7% but receivables grew +16.5% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Impairment charge, Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.
- Revenue declined **+16.7%** YoY to $344.58B.
- 5-year revenue CAGR **+5.4%**; 10y CAGR -1.5%.
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +16.5% YoY vs revenue growth of -16.7%. The +33.2% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +42.7% YoY (from $58.39B to $33.45B). With OCF at $55.37B and capex at $21.92B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 18, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 4, 2026.
- 21 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 2 sell transactions — net selling $507.2K.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Exxon Mobil Corp.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Vermillion Asset Management LLC, CHILDRESS CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, Vermillion Asset Management LLC.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full XOM analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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