Tesla Inc. (TSLA) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Tesla Inc.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (19)
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +19.4% while operating cash flow declined -10.0%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Gross margin compression: Gross margin contracted +7.3%pp (from 25.6% to 18.2%). This may reflect input cost inflation, pricing pressure, or product mix shift toward lower-margin segments.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +42.4% YoY (from $7.57B to $4.36B). With OCF at $13.26B and capex at $8.90B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Going concern doubt: The term "going concern" appears in 8 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 22 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- NEW: Substantial doubt about ability to continue in latest filing: The term "substantial doubt" "ability to continue" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 3 filing(s).
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- Endogenous analysis: The combination of explicit "going concern" language in the filing with deteriorating cash flow or rising leverage is a severe warning signal — the company's own auditors have flagged doubt about the ability to continue as a going concern.
- Endogenous analysis: "Material weakness in internal controls" combined with earnings-cash flow divergence is especially concerning — it suggests the reported earnings may not be reliable due to control deficiencies, and the cash flow shortfall may be masking underlying issues.
- 4 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 4 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Substantial doubt about ability to continue, Restatement of financial statements, Impairment charge, Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Going concern doubt, Material weakness in internal controls.
- Market cap $1.48T at $393.45 per share.
- Trailing P/E 91.50, P/S 15.27, P/B 17.57.
- Price $393.45 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum negative.
- RSI(14) 48.07.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +19.4% while operating cash flow declined -10.0%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Gross margin compression: Gross margin contracted +7.3%pp (from 25.6% to 18.2%). This may reflect input cost inflation, pricing pressure, or product mix shift toward lower-margin segments.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Jan 29, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 23, 2026.
- 12 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Tesla Inc.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Aspiring Ventures, LLC, Aspiring Ventures, LLC, Aspiring Ventures, LLC.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full TSLA analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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