Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Starbucks Corp.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (19)
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +23.0% vs revenue +2.8%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +26.4% YoY (from $3.32B to $2.44B). With OCF at $4.75B and capex at $2.31B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" "internal control" appears in 3 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 4 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 2.56x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- NEW: Off-balance sheet arrangements: Off-balance sheet arrangements appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow deterioration coincides with a -17.0% capex reduction. While lower capex temporarily preserves cash, it may signal underinvestment in growth assets — future revenue capacity could be constrained.
- 11 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls, Restatement of financial statements.
- Revenue grew **+2.8%** YoY to $37.18B.
- 5-year revenue CAGR **+5.1%**; 10y CAGR +6.4%.
- Market cap $120.85B at $106.01 per share.
- Trailing P/E 65.04, P/S 3.25.
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity -1.73 (low).
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +23.0% vs revenue +2.8%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +26.4% YoY (from $3.32B to $2.44B). With OCF at $4.75B and capex at $2.31B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Nov 14, 2025.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 29, 2026.
- 20 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 5 sell transactions — net selling $915.3K.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Starbucks Corp.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Tevis Investment Management, Tevis Investment Management, Tevis Investment Management.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full SBUX analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
View full report →Not investment advice. FilingSight is an automated analytical research tool, not a registered investment advisor. Ratings and scores are quantitative analytical classifications, not buy or sell recommendations. Nothing here is personalized to your circumstances. Investing involves risk of loss — consult a licensed professional. See full disclosures.