Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Occidental Petroleum’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (21)
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew -11.1% YoY vs revenue growth of -36.8%. The +25.6% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew -13.2% vs revenue -36.8%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +115.7% while operating cash flow declined -26.8%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +46.3% YoY (from $12.31B to $6.61B). With OCF at $12.31B and capex at $5.70B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- NEW: Going concern doubt in latest filing: The term "going concern" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 1 filing(s).
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 20 recent filing(s) (vs 3 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew -36.8% but receivables grew -11.1% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- Endogenous analysis: The combination of explicit "going concern" language in the filing with deteriorating cash flow or rising leverage is a severe warning signal — the company's own auditors have flagged doubt about the ability to continue as a going concern.
- 5 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 3 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Going concern doubt, Substantial doubt about ability to continue, Restatement of financial statements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.
- Revenue declined **+36.8%** YoY to $23.16B.
- Net margin at **0.00%** (expanding ▲).
- Price $48.91 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum negative.
- RSI(14) 21.97 (oversold).
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity 0.38 (low).
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew -11.1% YoY vs revenue growth of -36.8%. The +25.6% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew -13.2% vs revenue -36.8%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 18, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 5, 2026.
- 24 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Occidental Petroleum; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include VitalStone Financial, LLC, Westchester Capital Management, LLC, Westchester Capital Management, LLC.
- 12 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 8 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full OXY analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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