NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from NVIDIA Corp.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (15)
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +112.3% vs revenue +65.5%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Gross margin compression: Gross margin contracted +3.9%pp (from 75.0% to 71.1%). This may reflect input cost inflation, pricing pressure, or product mix shift toward lower-margin segments.
- NEW: Substantial doubt about ability to continue in latest filing: The term "substantial doubt" "ability to continue" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 1 filing(s).
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 5 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Deferred revenue growing — future revenue visibility: Deferred revenue grew +64.8% to $1.38B, providing forward revenue visibility. This is a positive leading indicator for subscription or contract-based businesses.
- R&D intensity declining: R&D as % of revenue fell from 9.9% to 8.6%. This may signal reduced innovation investment — potentially impacting long-term competitive position. Compare with peer R&D trends.
- Endogenous analysis: Inventory accumulation alongside margin compression is a classic demand-softening signal: excess inventory typically leads to discounting, which compresses margins further. Monitor for clearance events, write-downs, or guidance revisions.
- 2 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Substantial doubt about ability to continue, Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Restatement of financial statements.
- Market cap $5.26T at $217.56 per share.
- Trailing P/E 44.40, P/S 24.38, P/B 26.93.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +112.3% vs revenue +65.5%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Gross margin compression: Gross margin contracted +3.9%pp (from 75.0% to 71.1%). This may reflect input cost inflation, pricing pressure, or product mix shift toward lower-margin segments.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 25, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 20, 2026.
- 11 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference NVIDIA Corp.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include MUFG Securities EMEA plc, MUFG Securities EMEA plc, MUFG Securities EMEA plc.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full NVDA analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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