Norfolk Southern (NSC) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Norfolk Southern’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (13)
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +62.5% YoY (from $2.27B to $852.0M). With OCF at $3.18B and capex at $2.33B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 22 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.74x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 1 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls.
- Market cap $72.48B at $322.71 per share.
- Trailing P/E 40.24, P/S 6.90, P/B 4.59.
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity 0.65 (moderate).
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +62.5% YoY (from $2.27B to $852.0M). With OCF at $3.18B and capex at $2.33B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" appears in 22 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 9, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 24, 2026.
- 9 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
Full NSC analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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