Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Microsoft Corp.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (12)
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +48.9% vs revenue +17.8%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.37x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- NEW: Restructuring: Restructuring appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- NEW: Off-balance sheet arrangements: Off-balance sheet arrangements appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: 1 positive signal(s) versus 1 risk signal(s). The filing exhibits more constructive indicators than concerns, though individual risk factors should still be monitored.
- 20 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 4 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Restructuring, Off-balance sheet arrangements.
- Market cap $3.60T at $484.31 per share.
- Trailing P/E 26.98, P/S 10.84, P/B 8.13.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +48.9% vs revenue +17.8%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.37x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Jul 29, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Apr 29, 2026.
- 6 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 2 sell transactions — net selling $7.3M.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Microsoft Corp.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Axiom Investment Management LLC, Axiom Investment Management LLC, Axiom Investment Management LLC.
- 1 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 19 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full MSFT analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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