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Moderna Inc.

MRNAHealthcare

Generated Aug 19, 2026, 06:05 PM UTC

analytical score -21

MRNA (Moderna Inc.) analytical snapshot. Revenue declined +39.9% YoY to $1.94B. 5-year revenue CAGR -36.3%; 10y CAGR +28.3%. Net margin at -145.16% (contracting ▼). Market cap $61.48B at $153.99 per share. DCF not computed (no positive free cash flow reported). Risk: Moderate. Macro: Risk-on · Supportive. Composite analytical score -21 (data confidence 83%). Descriptive analytics from public filings — not investment advice.

Market cap
$61.48B
399.24M shares
Price
$153.99
NMS
P/E (ttm)
—
Revenue (FY)
$1.94B
YoY -39.9%
Net margin
-145.16%
▼ 188.57pp
Free cash flow
-$2.06B
-106.22% margin
Risk level
Moderate

Free SEC analysis

— computed from SEC filings, free to read
Free previewRegulatory Analyst

Filings & Ownership

Regulatory Analyst
score -10Stable
80% conf

Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 20, 2026. Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 31, 2026. 14 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.

  • Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 20, 2026.
  • Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 31, 2026.
  • 14 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
  • Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 6 sell transactions — net selling $35.1M.
  • ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Moderna Inc.; broad institutional reporting.
  • Recent filers include Theleme Partners LLP, Theleme Partners LLP, Theleme Partners LLP.
  • 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Latest 10-K
Feb 20, 2026
Annual report
Latest 10-Q
Jul 31, 2026
8-K (recent)
14
Insider net
-$35.1M
0B/6S
13F filers
10k+
Activist 13D
0
Recent 13F institutional filers (SEC EDGAR full-text)
FilerFormFiled
Theleme Partners LLP13F-HRFeb 13, 2024
Theleme Partners LLP13F-HRMay 14, 2024
Theleme Partners LLP13F-HRNov 14, 2024
Theleme Partners LLP13F-HRAug 14, 2024
REX Advisers, LLC13F-HRJul 13, 2026
Recent insider Form 4 activity
InsiderDateNetBuys/Sells
Bancel StephaneAug 7, 2026-$28.7M0/4
Hoge StephenJul 16, 2026-$3.6M0/1
Hoge StephenJun 17, 2026-$2.7M0/1
Recent 8-K material events
DateFormDescription
Jul 31, 20268-K8-K
Jul 8, 20268-K8-K
May 11, 20268-K8-K
May 1, 20268-K8-K
Mar 5, 20268-K8-K
Feb 13, 20268-K8-K
Feb 11, 20268-K8-K
Jan 12, 20268-K8-K
Insider Form 4 sentiment (transactions)
Buys: 0
Sells: 6
Buys
Sells
Sources:SEC EDGAR — Company FilingsSEC EDGAR — Full-Text Search
Free previewSEC Filing Analyst

SEC Filing Deep-Analysis

SEC Filing Analyst
score -8Stable
66% conf

1 risk signal(s) detected from XBRL filing diff analysis. 1 risk signal(s) detected versus 0 positive signal(s). The balance of evidence suggests elevated filing-specific risk that warrants monitoring in subsequent filings.

  • Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +30.8% vs revenue -39.9%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
  • Endogenous analysis: 1 risk signal(s) detected versus 0 positive signal(s). The balance of evidence suggests elevated filing-specific risk that warrants monitoring in subsequent filings.
  • 1 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
  • 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
Revenue
$1.94B
-39.9% YoY
Operating income
$-3.07B
+22.1% YoY
Net income
$-2.82B
+20.8% YoY
Operating cash flow
$-1.87B
+37.6% YoY
Capex
$192.0M
-81.7% YoY
Total assets
$12.34B
-12.8% YoY
Total liabilities
$3.69B
+13.8% YoY
Long-term debt
$590.0M
— YoY
Filing quality score
72/100
1 new disclosures
SEC XBRL metric changes (latest annual vs prior)
MetricPrior yearLatest yearChange% Change
Revenue$3.24B$1.94B$-1.29B-39.9%
Operating income$-3.94B$-3.07B$871.0M+22.1%
Net income$-3.56B$-2.82B$739.0M+20.8%
Operating cash flow$-3.00B$-1.87B$1.13B+37.6%
Capex$1.05B$192.0M$-859.0M-81.7%
Total assets$14.14B$12.34B$-1.80B-12.8%
Total liabilities$3.24B$3.69B$447.0M+13.8%
Long-term debt$0$590.0M$590.0M—
Cash & equivalents$1.93B$2.60B$668.0M+34.7%
Stockholders equity$10.90B$8.65B$-2.25B-20.6%
Inventory$117.0M$153.0M$36.0M+30.8%
Accounts receivable$358.0M$184.0M$-174.0M-48.6%
R&D expense$4.54B$3.13B$-1.41B-31.1%
XBRL disclosure changes (new vs dropped concepts)
TypeConcepts
AddedLossContingencyAccrualAtCarryingValue
RemovedAdvertisingExpense, AllowanceForDoubtfulAccountsReceivableCurrent, AssetImpairmentCharges, CurrentFederalTaxExpenseBenefit, CurrentForeignTaxExpenseBenefit, CurrentIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, CurrentStateAndLocalTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredFederalIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredForeignIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit
Risk language in filing text (EDGAR full-text search)
TermSeverityRecentPriorStatus
Restructuringmedium51Ongoing
Off-balance sheet arrangementsmedium58Ongoing
Related party transactionslow50NEW
Filing signal breakdown
Red flags: 1
Positive: 0
Watch: 0
Red flags
Positive
Watch
Sources:SEC EDGAR — Company Facts (XBRL)SEC EDGAR — Financial Reports
Free previewFundamentals Analyst

Fundamentals

Fundamentals Analyst
score -90Deteriorating
80% conf

Revenue declined +39.9% YoY to $1.94B. 5-year revenue CAGR -36.3%; 10y CAGR +28.3%. Net margin at -145.16% (contracting ▼).

  • Revenue declined +39.9% YoY to $1.94B.
  • 5-year revenue CAGR -36.3%; 10y CAGR +28.3%.
  • Net margin at -145.16% (contracting ▼).
  • Return on equity -32.62%, ROA -22.87%, ROIC -33.27%.
  • Gross margin 0.00%, operating margin -158.13%.
  • Free cash flow margin -106.22% (-$2.06B).
  • Net income up ▲ +20.8% YoY.
  • Debt/equity 0.09, current ratio 2.29, net debt -$1.13B.
  • Asset turnover 0.18 — capital efficiency.
Revenue (FY)
$1.94B
YoY -39.9%
Net margin
-145.16%
▼ 188.57pp
ROE
-32.62%
ROA -22.87%
ROIC
-33.27%
EPS (diluted)
$-7.26
FY2025
Free cash flow
-$2.06B
-106.22% margin
Debt / equity
0.09
Cash $1.72B
Current ratio
2.29
Equity $6.76B
Annual fundamentals — up to 10 years (SEC 10-K, US-GAAP)
FYRevenueRev YoYGross%Op%Net%FCFROE%
2024$3.24B-52.7%0.00-121.91-110.04-$4.05B-32.67
2025$1.94B-39.9%0.00-158.13-145.16-$2.06B-32.62
Quarterly revenue trend (last 6 quarters, SEC 10-Q)
Quarter endRevenueYoYQoQNet margin
Sep 30, 2021$4.97B+3065.0%—67.08%
Mar 31, 2022$6.07B+213.2%+22.1%60.29%
Jun 30, 2022$4.75B+9.1%-21.7%46.26%
Sep 30, 2022$3.36B-32.3%-29.2%31.00%
Mar 31, 2023$1.86B-69.3%-44.6%4.24%
Jun 30, 2023$344.0M-92.8%-81.5%-401.16%
Sources:SEC EDGAR — Company Facts (XBRL)
+8 more years of history, charts & full breakdown Pro

Pro analysis — preview

— score, signals & key metrics shown; full reasoning locked

Valuation

Valuation Analyst
score -10Stable
95% conf

Market cap $61.48B at $153.99 per share. DCF not computed (no positive free cash flow reported).

  • Market cap $61.48B at $153.99 per share.
Market cap
$61.48B
399.24M shares
P/E (ttm)
—
P/S
31.62
P/B
9.09
EV
$60.35B
Intrinsic (DCF)
—
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

Price & Technicals

Technical Analyst
score 50Improving
85% conf

Price $153.99 — uptrend (above 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive. RSI(14) 92.80 (overbought).

  • Price $153.99 — uptrend (above 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive.
Price
$153.99
NMS
RSI(14)
92.80
50-DMA
$63.50
200-DMA
$47.49
Volatility (ann.)
112.32%
52w range
$22.28–$163.47
-5.8% from high
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

Macro & Rates

Macro Analyst
score 30Improving
80% conf

Risk-on · Supportive. Real GDP growth 1.50% (quarterly, as of Apr 1, 2026). CPI inflation +3.3% YoY. Fed funds rate 3.63%, 10Y Treasury 4.72%.

  • Market regime: Risk-on · Supportive.
GDP growth
1.50%
CPI (YoY)
+3.3%
Fed funds
3.63%
10Y yield
4.72%
10Y−2Y
0.52pp
Unemployment
4.10%
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

Risk Scorecard

Risk Analyst
score -5Stable
90% conf

Composite risk Moderate. Leverage debt/equity 0.09 (low). Liquidity current ratio 2.29 (adequate).

  • Composite risk: Moderate.
Risk level
Moderate
Debt / equity
0.09
Current ratio
2.29
Margin stdev
259.23pp
Cash / assets
15.72%
Liab / assets
38.32%
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Macro exposure

Defensive · Low sensitivity
Neutral

Macro regime: Risk-on · Supportive. Moderna Inc. is a defensive name (low macro sensitivity) — a supportive backdrop, though defensives lag risk-on tapes.

Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Yield curve
Normal
VIX
15.84
Fed funds
3.63%
CPI YoY
+3.3%

Analytical read

deterministic preview

Price $153.99 — uptrend (above 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive..

Risk
Moderate
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Macro exposure
Neutral
Descriptive analytics from public filings and macro data — not investment advice.
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Peer comparison

Defensive group

How MRNA stacks up against tracked peers with similar macro sensitivity — by analytical score and macro exposure.

CompanyScoreMacro
DexCom Inc. DXCM21Neutral
Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY19Neutral
Eli Lilly & Co. LLY17Neutral
HCA Healthcare HCA9Neutral
Gilead Sciences GILD8Neutral
Johnson & Johnson JNJ8Neutral
Abbott Laboratories ABT7Neutral
Biogen Inc. BIIB7Neutral
Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG7Neutral
Coca-Cola Co. KO6Neutral
Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO3Neutral
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN3Neutral
Danaher Corp. DHR1Neutral
Merck & Co. MRK0Neutral
Zoetis Inc. ZTS0Neutral
Illumina Inc. ILMN0Neutral
Colgate-Palmolive CL-2Neutral
Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX-2Neutral
AbbVie Inc. ABBV-5Neutral
Procter & Gamble PG-7Neutral
CVS Health Corp. CVS-8Neutral
Mondelez International MDLZ-10Neutral
Amgen Inc. AMGN-10Neutral
Cigna Group CI-11Neutral
Kroger Co. KR-12Neutral
Costco Wholesale COST-14Neutral
Walmart Inc. WMT-14Neutral
Pfizer Inc. PFE-15Neutral
PepsiCo Inc. PEP-16Neutral
Sysco Corp. SYY-16Neutral
Hershey Co. HSY-17Neutral
Kimberly-Clark Corp. KMB-18Neutral
Moderna Inc. MRNA● you-21Neutral
UnitedHealth Group UNH-25Neutral