Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Marathon Petroleum’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (12)
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +17.5% while operating cash flow declined -4.8%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +22.3% YoY (from $6.13B to $4.77B). With OCF at $8.25B and capex at $3.49B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- NEW: Substantial doubt about ability to continue in latest filing: The term "substantial doubt" "ability to continue" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 5 filing(s).
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 2.04x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- 1 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Substantial doubt about ability to continue.
- Revenue declined **+4.4%** YoY to $132.70B.
- Net margin at **3.05%** (contracting ▼).
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +17.5% while operating cash flow declined -4.8%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +22.3% YoY (from $6.13B to $4.77B). With OCF at $8.25B and capex at $3.49B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 26, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 4, 2026.
- 13 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Marathon Petroleum; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include Westchester Capital Management, LLC, Westchester Capital Management, LLC, Westchester Capital Management, LLC.
- 15 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 5 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full MPC analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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