Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Eli Lilly & Co.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (11)
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +61.4% YoY vs revenue growth of +44.7%. The +16.7% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +81.1% vs revenue +44.7%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 3 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- R&D intensity declining: R&D as % of revenue fell from 15.6% to 11.0%. This may signal reduced innovation investment — potentially impacting long-term competitive position. Compare with peer R&D trends.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew +44.7% but receivables grew +61.4% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Restatement of financial statements.
- Market cap $1.15T at $1216.99 per share.
- Trailing P/E 53.03, P/S 17.58, P/B 33.82.
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +61.4% YoY vs revenue growth of +44.7%. The +16.7% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +81.1% vs revenue +44.7%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 12, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 5, 2026.
- 5 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Eli Lilly & Co.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include PROVIDENT ADVISORS LLC, INTRUST BANK NA, PROVIDENT INVESTMENT ADVISORS INC.
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full LLY analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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