IBM Corp. (IBM) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from IBM Corp.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (17)
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +19.2% YoY vs revenue growth of +7.6%. The +11.6% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +75.9% while operating cash flow declined -1.9%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.25x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Deferred revenue growing — future revenue visibility: Deferred revenue grew +15.8% to $16.10B, providing forward revenue visibility. This is a positive leading indicator for subscription or contract-based businesses.
- Goodwill is 49% of total assets: Goodwill of $74.60B represents a large share of the balance sheet. If acquired businesses underperform, a non-cash impairment charge could materially impact earnings. Monitor segment performance and acquisition integration metrics.
- NEW: Impairment charge: Impairment charge appears in recent filings but not in the prior 24-month period. Monitor for materiality.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew +7.6% but receivables grew +19.2% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- Endogenous analysis: Strong cash conversion (OCF > NI) combined with growing deferred revenue provides high forward visibility. The business model appears to generate sustainable, recurring cash flows — a positive structural indicator.
- 4 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- 1 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Impairment charge.
- Price $232.67 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive.
- RSI(14) 57.08.
- Composite risk: Elevated.
- Leverage debt/equity 1.83 (moderate).
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew +19.2% YoY vs revenue growth of +7.6%. The +11.6% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +75.9% while operating cash flow declined -1.9%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 24, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 23, 2026.
- 11 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~7740 recent 13F-HR filings reference IBM Corp.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include PROVIDENT INVESTMENT ADVISORS INC, ORG Wealth Partners, LLC, PROVIDENT INVESTMENT ADVISORS INC.
- 1 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
- 3 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Full IBM analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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