Deere & Co. (DE) 10-K Red Flags
Risk signals extracted deterministically from Deere & Co.’s SEC 10-K/10-Q XBRL filings — no LLM, every finding cites the underlying data.
Detected red flags (13)
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew -0.2% YoY vs revenue growth of -11.7%. The +11.5% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +4.4% vs revenue -11.7%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Interest coverage deteriorating below 3x: Interest coverage fell from 3.87x to 2.85x. Operating income of $9.04B covers interest of $3.17B only 2.85x — approaching the threshold where debt service becomes constrained. Monitor for covenant breaches.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.48x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Endogenous analysis: Revenue grew -11.7% but receivables grew -0.2% — the receivables-to-revenue gap suggests growth may be partially driven by extended credit terms rather than genuine demand. If DSO continues to rise, a revenue reversal or bad-debt charge could follow.
- 1 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- Revenue declined **+11.7%** YoY to $45.68B.
- 5-year revenue CAGR **+0.7%**; 10y CAGR +6.2%.
- Market cap $158.71B at $587.94 per share.
- Trailing P/E 31.78, P/S 3.47, P/B 5.79.
- Receivables outpacing revenue: Accounts receivable grew -0.2% YoY vs revenue growth of -11.7%. The +11.5% spread suggests extended credit terms, channel stuffing risk, or collection deterioration. Investigate the allowance for doubtful accounts and DSO trend.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +4.4% vs revenue -11.7%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
Filings & ownership
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Dec 18, 2025.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed May 28, 2026.
- 18 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
Full DE analyst report
Valuation (DCF & Graham), technicals, macro exposure, risk scorecard and 13F/13D ownership.
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