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Sep 4, 2026 · FilingSight Research

Market Brief — September 4, 2026

Risk-on · Supportive. 23 Buy / 124 Hold / 35 Sell across 182 names. Top conviction: INTU.

MacroDaily BriefRates

Market Brief — September 4, 2026

Auto-generated by FilingSight from live FRED macro data and the latest SEC-derived company reports.

Macro regime

Risk-on · Supportive.

Gauge Status Detail
Growth & Recession Gauge Mixed / caution Mixed / caution. Payrolls softening.
Inflation Regime Moderating Moderating. Headline CPI +3.3% YoY, core +2.5% YoY; 5Y breakeven 2.37%.
Financial Conditions Neutral Neutral. VIX 15.20, BAA-10Y credit spread 1.58pp.
Policy Stance Near neutral Near neutral. Fed funds 3.63%, real rate 1.16%.

Rates & inflation

Fed funds 3.63%, headline CPI YoY 3.3%, VIX 15.2, yield curve upward-sloping.

Coverage breadth

Across 182 tracked names: 23 bullish, 124 neutral, 35 bearish outlook.

Highest-conviction bullish names:

  • INTU (Intuit Inc.) — Buy, composite score 35, confidence 83%.
  • CME (CME Group Inc.) — Buy, composite score 32, confidence 81%.
  • CF (CF Industries) — Buy, composite score 32, confidence 82%.
  • SHOP (Shopify Inc.) — Buy, composite score 30, confidence 62%.

Most bearish names:

  • ON (ON Semiconductor Corp.) — Sell, score -44.
  • TSLA (Tesla Inc.) — Sell, score -36.
  • HD (Home Depot Inc.) — Sell, score -30.

What to watch

Markets enter the week with a constructive risk backdrop—supportive Fed policy, a benign VIX, and a positively-sloped curve—yet the breadth signal is notably tepid, with 124 Holds versus just 23 Buys suggesting investors are positioned for stability rather than acceleration. Focus shifts to tax-season software demand (INTU), exchange volumes (CME), and fertilizer pricing power (CF) as earnings catalysts, while SHOP warrants attention for any e-commerce spend guidance that could confirm or challenge the soft-landing narrative. The key risk is that a 3.3% CPI print, if sticky, forces the market to reprice the Fed's 3.63% funds rate path faster than the current curve implies.

FilingSight is informational and educational only, generated from public data. Not investment advice.

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