Market Brief — August 18, 2026
Risk-on · Supportive. 23 Buy / 129 Hold / 30 Sell across 182 names. Top conviction: INTU.
Market Brief — August 18, 2026
Auto-generated by FilingSight from live FRED macro data and the latest SEC-derived company reports.
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive.
| Gauge | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Growth & Recession Gauge | Mixed / caution | Mixed / caution. Payrolls softening. |
| Inflation Regime | Moderating | Moderating. Headline CPI +3.3% YoY, core +2.5% YoY; 5Y breakeven 2.25%. |
| Financial Conditions | Neutral | Neutral. VIX 14.25, BAA-10Y credit spread 1.69pp. |
| Policy Stance | Near neutral | Near neutral. Fed funds 3.63%, real rate 1.16%. |
Rates & inflation
Fed funds 3.63%, headline CPI YoY 3.3%, VIX 14.3, yield curve upward-sloping.
Coverage breadth
Across 182 tracked names: 23 bullish, 129 neutral, 30 bearish outlook.
Highest-conviction bullish names:
- INTU (Intuit Inc.) — Buy, composite score 35, confidence 83%.
- CF (CF Industries) — Buy, composite score 30, confidence 82%.
- ALL (Allstate Corp.) — Buy, composite score 30, confidence 81%.
- BKNG (Booking Holdings) — Buy, composite score 30, confidence 83%.
Most bearish names:
- TSLA (Tesla Inc.) — Sell, score -45.
- ON (ON Semiconductor Corp.) — Sell, score -37.
- DE (Deere & Co.) — Sell, score -31.
What to watch
With Fed funds at 3.63% and inflation cooling to 3.3%, the supportive risk-on regime remains intact as a VIX near 14 and an upward-sloping curve reflect confident positioning. However, market breadth of 23 Buy against 129 Hold and 30 Sell signals a highly selective tape where capital is concentrating rather than broadening. Watch whether easing financial conditions can eventually pull the dormant Hold universe into risk-taking, or if deteriorating breadth marks a late-cycle divergence beneath index strength.
FilingSight is informational and educational only, generated from public data. Not investment advice.