Market Brief — August 17, 2026
Risk-on · Supportive. 24 Buy / 131 Hold / 27 Sell across 182 names. Top conviction: INTU.
Market Brief — August 17, 2026
Auto-generated by FilingSight from live FRED macro data and the latest SEC-derived company reports.
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive.
| Gauge | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Growth & Recession Gauge | Mixed / caution | Mixed / caution. Payrolls softening. |
| Inflation Regime | Moderating | Moderating. Headline CPI +3.3% YoY, core +2.5% YoY; 5Y breakeven 2.24%. |
| Financial Conditions | Neutral | Neutral. VIX 14.63, BAA-10Y credit spread 1.67pp. |
| Policy Stance | Near neutral | Near neutral. Fed funds 3.63%, real rate 1.16%. |
Rates & inflation
Fed funds 3.63%, headline CPI YoY 3.3%, VIX 14.6, yield curve upward-sloping.
Coverage breadth
Across 182 tracked names: 24 bullish, 131 neutral, 27 bearish outlook.
Highest-conviction bullish names:
- INTU (Intuit Inc.) — Buy, composite score 35, confidence 83%.
- CF (CF Industries) — Buy, composite score 31, confidence 82%.
- SHOP (Shopify Inc.) — Buy, composite score 30, confidence 62%.
- ALL (Allstate Corp.) — Buy, composite score 30, confidence 81%.
Most bearish names:
- TSLA (Tesla Inc.) — Sell, score -45.
- ON (ON Semiconductor Corp.) — Sell, score -37.
- WBD (Warner Bros Discovery) — Sell, score -29.
What to watch
With the Fed on hold at 3.63% and inflation running at 3.3%, the supportive macro backdrop keeps risk appetite constructive, though the breadth profile (24 Buy / 131 Hold) signals a stock-picker's tape rather than a broad re-rating. Watch for continued rotation into high-quality compounders like INTU and SHOP, alongside defensive value in CF and ALL, as the upward-sloping curve and sub-15 VIX favor adding on dips. The key risk is a hawkish surprise in upcoming CPI prints, which would test the market's willingness to hold this regime.
FilingSight is informational and educational only, generated from public data. Not investment advice.